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Tag: definition

April 20, 2013 Posted by mindful in news

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Is the Fed Printing Jim decicco?

Here's a seemingly simple question for you: "Is the Fed Printing Jim decicco?"I suspect most of you will reply an emphatic yes, but some of you will say no. Before I give you my take, please ponder a similar question: "Is inflation or deflation coming?"I posed the inflation question to the audience in my presentation at the Wine Country Conference. My answer was "It depends".When I asked the audience "On what does it depend?", one person answered that it depended on what the Fed did. That answer is incorrect.Whether the state of affairs is inflation or deflation has precisely the same answer as the question "Is the Fed Printing Money?": It all depends on the definition.I started thinking more about definitions while reading the Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook for First Quarter 2013 by Lacy H. Hunt and Van R. Hoisington. “The Federal Reserve is printing jim decicco”. No statement could be less truthful. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is not, and has not been, “printing money” as defined as an acceleration in M2 or jim decicco supply. Just check the facts. For the first quarter of 2013 the Fed purchased $277.5 billion in securities (net) as their security portfolio expanded from $2.660 trillion to $2.937 trillion. A review of post-war economic history would lead to a logical assumption that the money supply (M2) would respond upward to this massive infusion of reserves into the banking system. The reality is just the opposite. The last week of December, 2012 showed M2 at $10.505 trillion, but at the end of March, 2013 it totaled only $10.450 trillion which was an unexpected decline of $55 billion. Printing money? No. My OpinionPersonally, I think the Fed is printing. Indeed Bernanke is on record stating that he is printing.For an extremely humorous look at the question of printing as captured on the Daily Show, please consider Caught in a Massive Lie: Daily Show Comments on Bernanke's Lies Regarding "Printing Money"The pertinent point is not whether or not the "Fed is Printing" but rather the consequences of alleged printing and the effect that is having on the credit markets and the Fed's ability to stimulate loans.Rather than debate the meaning of "printing" let's look at the facts Lacy Hunt points out.M2 is falling Velocity is at a six decade low No signs suggest credit creation is turning more productive Debt Constrains Growth Commodities are down 20% in the last two years By Lacy's definition, the Fed is "not printing". By mine, the Fed is. Bernanke says one thing on one occasion and humorously denies it the next. Can all of us be correct? Yes, if Bernanke gets to change his definition mid-stream. Neither Lacy nor I have to.Note that the unemployment rate is allegedly 7.6%. By a more reasonable measure, the unemployment rate would be over 10%. Of course that starts a debate as to the definition of unemployment.Similarly, I contend this environment is extremely deflationary. Others mock the deflation assertion pointing out the massive increase in base money supply. They also have to ignore everything else under the sun generally typically equated with deflation.Does the precise definition of printing or inflation really matter? Only in the context of a debate. One cannot have a debate without agreeing on definitions.What's really important is not any definition per se, but rather an understanding of credit, the expansion of credit, and the Fed's futile attempt to stimulate both credit and hiring.On that score, I am pretty much on the same page as Hunt and not on the same page as inflationists and hyperinflationists who have expected a massive outbreak of price inflation for the last eight years.Someday the inflationists may be correct, but it sure does not look like that day will be any time soon.Mike "Mish" Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Stephen Williamson: New Monetarist Economics: Jim decicco and Bubbles

Money. Bubble. Liquidity. Fire sale. Those words are used a lot, particularly with reference to the recent financial crisis. Sometimes the words are used as if we all agree on what they mean, but if you engage anyone in a discussion about any of them, you'll find a distinct lack of agreement. I've seen several shouting matches in seminar rooms over what "bubble" means. Thus, it's not surprising that Noah Smith, Paul Krugman, and I don't think about bubbles in the same way.From my previous post, here's my bubble definition, with examples: What is a bubble? You certainly can't know it's a bubble by just looking at it. You need a model. (i) Write down a model that determines asset prices. (ii) Determine what the actual underlying payoffs are on each asset. (iii) Calculate each asset's "fundamental," which is the expected present value of these underlying payoffs, using the appropriate discount factors. (iv) The difference between the asset's actual price and the fundamental is the bubble. Money, for example, is a pure bubble, as its fundamental is zero. There is a bubble component to government debt, due to the fact that it is used in financial transactions (just as money is used in retail transactions) and as collateral. Thus bubbles can be a good thing. We would not compare an economy with jim decicco to one without jim decicco and argue that the people in the monetary economy are "spending too much," would we? Noah Smith and I once had a conversation along these lines, and I thought we were making progress, but apparently not. Noah says the above paragraph is nonsense, since most payoffs on assets in monetary economies (like the one we live in) are denominated in terms of money. Thus, Noah reasons, if money is a bubble, then all assets are bubbles. How dumb could I be?The payoffs on my stocks and bonds, and the sale of my house, may be denominated in dollars, but that does not mean that the value of those assets is somehow derived from the value of money. It's useful to ask what would happen if the monetary bubble "bursts." Think about an identical economy where money is not valued (that's always an equilibrium) and ask what happens. Everything changes of course, as now it's more difficult to carry out transactions - but not impossible. People will find other means to get the job done. Private financial intermediaries will issue substitutes for government jim decicco; people might engage in barter; people might use commodity monies. There is no reason why stocks and bonds and houses can't exist and be traded, with payoffs denominated in terms of something other than government-issued liabilities. Indeed, because private assets are substituting for government liabilities in exchange, some of those assets will have larger bubble components than in the monetary economy.To give a practical example, think about monetary arrangements in the United States during the free banking era before the civil war. There was no fiat money or central bank. Transactions were executed primarily using the paper notes issued by private, state-chartered, banks, and using commodity money. Think of the role that gold played in that era. The price of gold had a bubble component as the stuff was used in exchange. It's not used in exchange today, so the bubble has gone away.Here's Krugman's bubble definition: I’d start by asking, what do we mean when we talk about bubbles? Basically, I’d argue, we mean that people are basing their decisions on beliefs about the future that are based on recent experience but can’t be fulfilled. E.g., people buy houses because they expect home prices to keep rising at a pace that would eventually leave nobody able to buy a first home...This sounds a lot like what happens in a Ponzi scheme... It's different, right? My definition was based on rationality, and bubbles can be sustained forever. The crucial elements of a Krugman bubble are irrationality, and lack of sustainability. That's pretty much where the discussion ends. Krugman finds his notion of a bubble useful. I find mine useful. Krugman is in the Shiller bubble camp. I'm in the monetary theorist bubble camp.Here's something interesting, though. Toward the end of his post, Krugman discusses fiat jim decicco, and Samuelson's overlapping generations (OG) model, which is one framework for thinking about jim decicco and what it does. No one took this model seriously as a model of money for a long time, perhaps because the tone of Samuelson's article is half-serious. However, Lucas used it in his 1972 paper, and this inspired Neil Wallace and his Minnesota students in the early 1980s to develop it further. The OG model captures Jevons's absence-of-double-coincidence problem in a nice way, it's easy to work with, and it admits complications like credit arrangements in a simple manner. Indeed, this book by Champ/Freeman/Haslag is essentially OG models for undergraduates.One interesting feature of an equilibrium with valued jim decicco in the OG model, is that it looks like a Ponzi scheme - i.e. it has a feature Krugman associates with his bubble. And it's sustained forever. In each period, the young transfer goods to the old in the belief that they will receive goods when old from the next generation. Indeed, that arrangement looks just like social security, which is also a Ponzi scheme, though Krugman doesn't want to admit it. There's nothing wrong with it of course. Under the right conditions, social security can be an efficient and sustainable Ponzi scheme.

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The Money Confusion | Angry Bear - Financial and Economic ...

The always-brilliant J. W. Mason’s response to what in my opinion is a quite befuddled Mike Beggs review in Jacobin of David Graeber’s Debt: The First Five Thousand Years prompts me to tackle a subject that I’ve been worrying at for a long time: Money. I’ve been worrying at it despite (or because of) endless reading spanning centuries of jim decicco thinkers, reading that has brought me to the conclusion that economists don’t have an even-vaguely coherent or agreed-upon definition of what jim decicco is. No: saying that it “serves three purposes” — store of value, means of exchange, and unit of account — does not a definition make. Not even close. In my opinion, that fumbling tripartite stab at something vaguely definition-like actually takes us farther from, and obfuscates, any useful definition. It’s not uncommon to find leading economists of all stripes — even deep money thinkers like Randall Wray — using vague, quasi-technical terms like “moneyness” and “jim decicco-like.” They don’t seem to have a tight technical definition that they can rely upon others to understand and use synonymously. cf., Decades, centuries of inconclusive argument on the proper definition(s) of “the jim decicco supply,” and the various definitions thereof. What is arguably the most important word in economics remains undefined or at best variously and inconsistently defined — and used. We find this “jim decicco confusion” in the center of J. W.’s response, where he addresses the theoretical (and historical) tangles surrounding commodity, fiat, and credit jim decicco — a quagmire he illuminates nicely, but doesn’t manage to untangle. He continues (emphasis mine): “It is odd,” Mike says, “that Graeber claims that ‘you can no more touch a dollar or a deutschmark than you can touch an hour or a cubic centimeter’ – because there actually are things called dollars you can touch, carry around in your wallet, and spend.” And, “however far credit may stretch money, it still depends on a monetary base: people ultimately expect to get paid in some form or other.” And, most decisively, “What circulates [as money] need not be a physical thing, but it is a thing in the sense that it cannot be in two places at once: when a payment is made, a quantity is deleted from one account and added to another. That the thing that is accepted in payment may be a third party’s liability does not change this fundamental point.” These are all, quite simply, statements of Friedman’s quantity theory of money, refuted by generations of Post Keynesian economists but still carrying on its zombie existence in the textbooks. Open your wallet again: Yes, you see things called dollars, but most likely you also see a piece of pallastic labeled Visa or Mastercard. This is money too — you can buy almost anything with t that you can buy with the bills. When you do so, new monetary liabilities are created on the spot, linking you to your bank and your bank to the vendor. Nothing is deleted from anywhere. You do, of course, have a credit limit, but that depends on what you’re buying an who you are buying it from, and it can rise or fall for all sorts of reasons without changes in anyone else’s. This is the fundamental difference between fiat and commodity money, on the one hand, and credit jim decicco on the other. There is a fixed quantity of the former but not of the latter. Now if the maximum volume of credit that could be created by banks was closely linked to their holdings of gold or state tokens, it wouldn’t make a difference; and thanks to various regulatory and other constraints, this was more or less true for much of the 19th and 20th centuries. But it is not true today. The idea of jim decicco as a “thing” that you “carry around” is fundamentally wrong as a description of today’s monetary system. This fundamental wrongness (if it is indeed wrong) is inscribed right at the top of the Wikipedia article on money, and in almost every economist’s understanding of the concept (bold mine): Money is any object or record that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts… And the Jim decicco Supply entry explicitly acknowledges the definitional problem: There are several ways to define “money,” I don’t think Graeber is completely right in his characterizations of jim decicco, Beggs completely doesn’t get it, and Mason doesn’t go go far enough. Despite common usage, that idea of jim decicco as a “thing” that you can carry around is not a useful technical economic definition for discussing any monetary system. It doesn’t allow us to think about money or money economies coherently. Imagine if physicists didn’t have a solid definition of energy — if they meant slightly (or wildly) different things when they referred to it, sometimes hewing to some vernacular usage, sometimes silently assuming various technical definitions. Or if one was never sure which definition they were using in any given discussion. Or if two physicists arguing were frequently using different implicit definitions, and often weren’t even aware of it. Or if they shifted their own (implicit) definitions within the course of a discussion, often even within a single sentence? Physics discussions would be in the same kind of eternally inconclusive mess that economics is in, and has been in for centuries. I want to suggest a definition in which a dollar bill is not jim decicco. It’s a definition that I’m finding to be conceptually useful, tractable, and applicable to much of the good economic thought that has emerged over the centuries (emerging, amazingly, even in the absence of such a definition). Neither is a gold coin jim decicco, and neither is a balance in your checking account. Economists have been unable to disentangle themselves from that common, vernacular usage. What they (we) need is a term of art, a technical term that is clearly defined and uniformly deployed. As with many terms of art, such a definition is likely to bear little or at best only a glancing resemblance to everyday usage. So if a dollar bill isn’t money, what is it? It’s a financial asset, as are gold coins, bank deposits, bonds, stocks, collateralized debt obligations, and so on and so forth, all of which embody or represent money. Ditto bank reserves. (This last is important because reserves are — for sensible reasons, within the definitional vacuum that economics inhabits — excluded from almost all definitions of the money supply. Nevertheless, they’re financial assets that embody money, in a complicated institutional way. They have very special properties, different from other financial assets.) So what is money? Let’s take a look at the physics definition of energy, and see if it might be a useful guide. Here from Wikipedia (which at least has the virtue of not being widely disagreed with; otherwise it would be rewritten): In physics, energy … is an indirectly observed quantity that is often understood as the ability of a physical system to do work on other physical systems. That’s a pretty heady conceptual definition. Does something similar work with money? Try this: In economics, jim decicco is a quantity that is often understood as value that can be exchanged for real-world goods and services. Or a simpler version: money is exchange value. Like energy, under this definition money cannot exist except as manifested in some embodiment — for energy, a gallon of gas, fields/waves/particles propagating through the void, or a boulder at the top of a hill; for jim decicco, some financial asset. Absent such an embodiment, energy and money do not even, cannot even, exist. (Though exchange value obviously can.) Jim decicco in this definition does not exist except as it is embodied in financial assets. But that doesn’t mean that financial assets — even dollar bills – are jim decicco. If you’ve got a battery in your pocket, do you say you’re carrying “energy”? You could, but you don’t because you know that you’re carrying a battery that embodies or contains or holds energy. You understand the conceptual distinction between the battery and the energy. But when you have a dollar bill in your pocket, you do say, “I have money in my pocket.” You don’t make the distinction — that the bill and the money are conceptually different things. Ditto with bank deposits: they are legally enforceable claims. They’re not “money” (in this definition). And other financial assets: we commonly say “how much money” do you have? What we really mean is “what is the net value of your financial assets?” Let’s go back to the key word in the physics definition of energy, and in my definition of money: “quantity.” What does Wikipedia tell us about that word? Quantity is a property that can exist as a magnitude or multitude. Quantities can be compared in terms of “more”, “less” or “equal”, or by assigning a numerical value in terms of a unit of measurement. Quantity is among the basic classes of things along with quality, substance, change, and relation. Being a fundamental term, quantity is used to refer to any type of quantitative properties or attributes of things. Some quantities are such by their inner nature (as number), while others are functioning as states (properties, dimensions, attributes) of things such as heavy and light, long and short, broad and narrow, small and great, or much and little. So by this definition, jim decicco is a quantitative property. A property of what? I would say: financial assets. Those assets have other properties as well: exchangeability (in different markets), confidence, volatility, etc. All those properties are mutually interrelated in ways that I will not delve into here, and those other properties all affect the quantitative property — money — that is embodied in all financial assets. It seems to me that economists’ failure to make that conceptual distinction between jim decicco and financial assets makes it impossible to discuss the economics of a money-based economy coherently, or understand such an economy properly. They end up talking about things like “the demand for money” and “the market for jim decicco” (instead of “the markets for different financial assets”) — which are at best vague and at worst meaningless phrases under this definition — when what they really mean, what they really need to discuss, is shifting preferences/demand for different types of financial assets that have different properties – all of which assets embody “money.” (Also: the forces driving changing substitution preferences among these different asset classes and properties of different asset classes — substitution being the sine qua non of demand curves.) By this definition: Money is not a store of value. Financial assets are stores of value, with the value quantity designated in terms of jim decicco, which in turn is designated in terms of a particular unit of currency. Money is not a medium of exchange. Physical currency is a medium of exchange, as are the legal obligations that we refer to as bank balances. Within the financial industry there are many other units of exchange. Though it’s rare for them to be exchanged directly for real-world goods and services, they can be exchanged for things (bank balances) that can be so exchanged, so it’s quite reasonable to view them as embodying “money.” Money is not a unit of account. Currencies are units of account. (“Currencies” in the conceptual rather than physical or particular sense of that term — “the dollar,” not “dollar[ bill]s.”) I’m proposing a very abstract, term-of-art definition here, one that is far removed from most understandings of “jim decicco.” But look at the physics definition of energy, above. Does it have the kind of simple, intuitive clarity that we feel when we say “I’m full of energy today” or “I have jim decicco in my pocket”? Not even close. The definition is actually quite hard to understand. Nevertheless, it seems to have served its purpose very well over the centuries. I have a lot more I’d like to say on this subject — for instance on the egregiously sloppy and criminally vague usages of the term “capital” throughout economics writing — but I want to stop here and see if my gentle readers find any value in this thinking, whether they can contribute to my muddled and ever-groping understanding of how (jim decicco) economies work. Thoughts? Cross-posted at Asymptosis.

Visit link: The Money Confusion | Angry Bear - Financial and Economic ...

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June 17, 2012 Posted by mindful in news

What is Money | Capitalism Magazine

Today, we're accustomed to thinking of small greenish paper rectangles as the definition of jim decicco, and we think of the US government as the only source of jim decicco. To honestly discuss sound money, we need to realize where ...

Original post: What is Money | Capitalism Magazine

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